var json_comments = new Array("

$\"user-pic\"$

xenth

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate | Flag for review

It'll be a good time to buy when the tax credit goes away. If the seller knows you're getting a bonus if you buy by a certain date, they're going to ask more.

Wait until the stupid bonuses and credits are gone and then go shopping. I can get a better deal on a car now than I would've during cash for clunkers because the moment that thing was announced prices shot up.

4 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

mbgrabbe

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@xenth: I bought a house a few months ago, and I remember thinking about this exact point you're bringing up. There's no question that the tax credit is inflating the price of homes right now. It's creating a lot of artificial demand.

Sure, the impact is probably negligible on foreclosed/shortsale homes, but when a realtor is pricing out a home, there's no question that he factors in the $8k the buyer will get. It's a good selling point and a good reason to bump up the asking price.

I really wonder how much I could have bought my house for if this tax credit didn't exist. My guess is that I could have probably saved at least $10k on the mortgage.

$\"user-pic\"$

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@xenth: I don't agree. I think everything is totally dependent on the specific market. Especially if you are looking at foreclosures or short sales... banks are not increasing the prices due to the tax credit. Most sellers just want out quickly. This is a perfect time to buy.

$\"user-pic\"$

theyoungandthebetrayed

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@portishead69: Banks may not be increasing the prices due to the tax credit, but you better believe that the offers accepted are well above asking price.

$\"user-pic\"$

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@xenth: sellers are just as impatient as buyers (because, in most cases, they are buyers themselves).

Use the tax credit. Take the incentives. If you can afford it, now does not seem like a bad time for a home purchase.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

The threat of further depreciation is very real. However I think many people view houses incorrectly. They really aren't an investment, even though most of us think of them that way. At best they're a piggy bank that prevent you from \"throwing money away\" on rent. But you should have no expectation of making a profit on the purchase. After all, you need a place to live anyway, right? If the value of your home keeps pace with inflation and you sell it at that price (purchase price + inflation) when you're ready to sell, you'll have recouped the purchase price and you'll get the money you paid for it back. As well as having a good place to live in the interim.

Having said that, it still makes perfect sense for some people to rent. For instance, if they can't afford the downpayment to buy a house, or if the cost of renting is sufficiently low enough for them to save money. Or their credit sucks and they need an exotic loan product to make a purchase.

4 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

FatLynn

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@Paladin_11: Tax breaks also play a huge part in the decision to buy vs. rent. If you @Incredulous1: You are ten years into your mortgage and 70K under water? How much was your house to begin with?

$\"user-pic\"$

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@Paladin_11: I always had trouble with the idea of considering your home as an investment. Most investments fall through (due to inexperience for the most part). Is it really a good idea to make your home such a big liability?

$\"user-pic\"$

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@Paladin_11: If you break even on a house, that's the best investment you can ask for.

$\"user-pic\"$

catastrophegirl chooses not to fly

November 13, 2009 4:37 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@RandomHookup: as a homeowner, i'm really just pretty excited about not having elephants thundering around upstairs and not having to share a water heater. for me, it would be worth the increased cost.
except, as a homebuyer in an area that's on that list my mortgage and insurance is about $21 higher for 900 more square feet than the last apartment i lived in so it's a huge improvement

","","

$\"user-pic\"$

H3ion

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

A single family house with a white picket fence used to be the American Dream. Home ownership still is. Paladin_11 is right in saying that renting housing makes sense in many instances, but the government has encouraged home ownership through the deductions for mortgage interest and real estate taxes, even before the credit programs. Prices are starting to inch their way back up and as long as interest rates are as low as they are, it may make sense for people to consider buying rather than renting. What they have to do is figure out their real cost after deductions versus the rent they'd be paying. Historically, housing has increased in value faster than the rate of inflation. It's not an investment; it's a place to live, but the idea of owning an asset that will generally hold its value is really attractive.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

DoctorMD

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

The UK had 2 false housing bottoms. The price drop slowed and then started again. Just as likely normal variation.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

Mr.Duke

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

The trend will continue downward. ...

1 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

LadySiren is murdering her kids with HFCS and processed cheese

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@Mr.Duke: Indeed. I hear Detroit is offering a full city block for free.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

I have a feeling that home prices in many U.S cities are being kept artificially high right now (sound familiar?) because banks are holding on to foreclosures, not releasing them for sale. Because of this, supplies are artificially short. Demand is high, because you'll see a home listed on the MLS for a nice amount, but then you find out that 35 people are bidding on it and the price is now actually 20-30% higher.

Once these foreclosures are let loose, you're going to see prices start to plummet again.

2 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

j-o-h-n

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@dorianh49: This is why they are holding on to them, they don't want to see their investments drop like a rock any more than anyone else does -- if they are able they will likely let them out in a long trickle to keep that from happening.

$\"user-pic\"$

JiminyChristmas

November 13, 2009 4:37 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@dorianh49: Based on my own anecdotal observations, I'm inclined to agree. I live in a neighborhood with a pretty substantial number of foreclosed houses. There are several properties nearby that have been vacant for 9-12 months and I've seen little to no effort to market them.

The whole thing is such a cluster$%^#. Why kick people out of the houses so the properties can sit empty and rot for a year? At least when people lived there the snow got shoveled and the grass was mowed more than once every couple of months.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

Bob Lu

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

I lol'd

","","

$\"user-pic\"$

ohenry

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

*sigh* I really wish I could take advantage of this right now. I had a house available in my hometown (win!) that had four bedrooms (family win!) two baths (morning win!) a garage, a nice basement (catbox win!), and a good yard (son win!) for a little over $70,000. Thus, with the $8,000 tax rebate, it would have been $62,000. A crazy awesome house in crazy good condition with low property taxes and everything I'm looking for in a house.

Unfortunately, I'm just going to be done with school in December, and between student loan payments and payments for the loan on my car, I cannot afford a mortgage payment as well; and I really don't want to take it and default on it and become part of the housing market problem.

Oh well. Hopefully sometime in the future.

5 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@ohenry: butbutbut your mortgage payment would be less than $350 not including taxes and insurance. That's cheaper than most rent. At least then you'll probably get that money back in the end. With rent, you get back nothing.

Believe me, when the right place falls into your lap, sometimes it's best to go for it if you possibly can. Work the numbers. You already know what the loan payment on your car is, and you should be able to find out what the total payment on your student loans will be in the future.

If you don't have a lot of down payment, and want to avoid PMI, look into a 30 year fixed-rate \"piggyback\" loan, AKA 5/15/80 loan, putting down 5%. So, at $70,000 with 5% down (plus buyer's expected closing costs) $4,000 down. Subtract the $8,000 credit= $58,000. At current interest (5.5) you're looking at around $340 per month on a piggyback. (not including taxes and insurance)

OTOH, if you're thinking of moving out of town in the next two years or so, and your apartment is $300 a month, including electric, water, and cable TV, it would be better to stay where you are for now.

$\"user-pic\"$

catastrophegirl chooses not to fly

November 13, 2009 4:37 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@ohenry: my mortgage is lower than my last rent [which was on a smaller house] and i got 100% financing for a first home buyers plan through my credit union. if you are not yet a member of a credit union but have the opportunity to join one, it might be worth checking out their mortgage options and see if it's worth it for you.

$\"user-pic\"$

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

70 grand? For a house that isn't condemned from being used as a meth lab / crime scene / filled with spiders?

I want to go to there.

Wife and I are house shopping. In LA, if you want a house that is A) not a gang warfare zone and B) not currently on fire, you're looking at $500K, easy. Oh, you want neighbors that don't take dumps on your porch? You have to move to a nicer area. $750K please. Ugh.

$\"user-pic\"$

LadySiren is murdering her kids with HFCS and processed cheese

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@SGriswold: Hey, Griswolds! If you're in tech or medical, come to my neck o' the woods. Houses in our area of NC go anywhere from $50,000 up to the millions (McMansions, bleh). You can get a nice place with acreage, great layout, etc. for $190,000 - $250,000. And we've got sweet tea. That should be a deal-maker right there.

$\"user-pic\"$

Pickled_Herring

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@LadySiren: which area of NC? DH and I are both in tech and love NC...

$\"user-pic\"$

LadySiren is murdering her kids with HFCS and processed cheese

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@Pickled_Herring: I'm smackdab between two of the larger metro areas - the Triangle and the Triad. The Triangle has more tech stuff than the Triad does, but both have decent opportunities.

$\"user-pic\"$

LadySiren is murdering her kids with HFCS and processed cheese

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@LadySiren: Uh, duh - I guess I should explain those two geographic areas, eh? Sorry, just got done with lunch, full and drowsy. Triangle: Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill. Triad: Greensboro, High Point, Winston-Salem.

$\"user-pic\"$

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@LadySiren: We visited Raleigh/Durham a few times and we really like it there. Loved a little town nearby, Cary. Slightly south, if I remember.

$\"user-pic\"$

pecan 3.14159265

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@SGriswold: Yeah, that's pretty much the case here in the DC area too. I've seen some much older houses that hover around the $300k mark, but they all required some renovation. One house we saw had a boarded up basement - who knows what was living down there. They were asking $350k! And it had all sorts of crappy things the previous owners had done to it. All of the newer homes pretty much start at $500k, with the larger McMansions going for anywhere from $800k to millions.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

SG-Cleve

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

Don't forget that when your home value goes down your property taxes go down too.

So if you're not planning to sell your house anytime soon the lower values actually put more money into your pocket.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

Ratty

November 13, 2009 4:36 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

Go Reno! One of the worst.

Glad I'm a renter right now. Very glad. Extremely effing enthralled, even.

I wish my co-worker the best buying a home here, and I'm halfway tempted now to print this out and show him exactly WHY it's not always a good idea to buy. he seems to insist buying a house will always make you money. Enough money to flip it in 5 years for profit, every time. I told him Economics disagrees and he told me \"The economy has NOTHING to do with buying and selling a house!\"

It's saddening. I guarantee the guy's going to be debt-wracked like mad.

2 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

Antiks

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@Ratty: Why anyone would want to live in Reno is beyond me. That place is a cesspool.

$\"user-pic\"$

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

Have you ever been to the area? This is the typical response for someone thats either never visited or visited their relatives somewhere in some awful suburb in the valleys.

Even in this craptacular economy and the fact that Reno-Sparks is #8 on that list - you're still seeing several Million plus dollar homes selling and the market is picking up here.

Lets see - 25 minutes from Lake Tahoe and no more than about an hour or two from 20+ Ski resorts. Plenty of entertainment, shopping, etc. Good schools, I wouldn't want to raise my kids anywhere else.

I'm so sick of hearing a 'Reno is XYZ' comment with nothing of value to back up as to why you think so.

","","

$\"user-pic\"$

November 13, 2009 4:37 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

This makes me sad. I never intended on buying my house to make a profit.
My little 1 bath 2 bedroom starter house will also be my ending house. With 20 years left on my mortgage and the value now 70,000 less then I owe I will never \"move on up\" Oh well, hopefully I will be lucky enough to be in my house to the end...

Hopefully though, my kids (teenagers) will be able to afford a house easier then I did if the prices stay so low.

","","","","

$\"user-pic\"$

November 13, 2009 4:37 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

I need to find a place in Northern Va with cheaper rent. I just do not have down payment money yet.

2 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

pecan 3.14159265

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@sonneillon: Us either. What areas are you looking at? The outer suburbs (Fairfax, Vienna, Falls Church) or the areas closer to DC (Arlington, Alexandria)?

$\"user-pic\"$

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@pecan 3.14159265: Well I work in both Arlington and Woodbridge. I would like to split the difference with Springfield that would be perfect, but as you know the closer to the beltway you get the more things cost.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

Trai_Dep

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

I'm floored that CA only placed once in the list.

2 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

nnj

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

That is because this report is from the Q3 of 2009. CA house prices have already dropped significantly. Most of the damage is done there already, and probably will continue to decline. If this report was in, say Q3 2007 or Q# 2008, CA would probably dominate the list.

$\"user-pic\"$

j-o-h-n

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@Trai_Dep: That may or may not be good news. I guess Detroit is not on the list because they can't even give house away there. There *is* no further 'down' there.

","","","","","","","

$\"user-pic\"$

kylere

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

The only reason Flint Michigan did not win is that houses there have already lost 90% of their value from 2002.

","","","

$\"user-pic\"$

colorisnteverything

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

I don't really know many people that want to move to Joliet anyhow. I am sure that there are lots of nice people there, but where I live, we just call it \"prison town\". Perhaps it gets a bad rap for no reason, but I don't know many people wanting to live there. Naperville, now, lots of people want to move there.

2 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

FatLynn

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@colorisnteverything: Yeah, it's really hard to see what is really happening when they lump Chicago-Naperville-Joliet all into one bucket. The truth is that there is variation even from one Chicago neighborhood to the next.

$\"user-pic\"$

colorisnteverything

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

Absolutely and completely. Gold Coast is a far cry from Wrigleyville or the Loop. LOL.

I am from the Region - IE Northern Indiana, but every bus that comes from my university to Chicago (where my parents would pick me up, more convenient than driving 4 hours) used to go through Joliet and pick up prisoners. Thus, my parents just drove, afraid I would be shivved on the bus.

If you were from out of the area, well, you might not know better lol.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

squinko

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

Go Lansing/East Lansing! If only crime rates weren't going up like crazy and there was something to do here besides drink, I might actually buy a house...

","","

$\"user-pic\"$

nnj

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

\"Want a bargain on a house?\" If you do, keep waiting. Not many bargains yet, but its getting better.

","","","","","","","

$\"user-pic\"$

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

That list is incredibly confusing:

How can you have:

24. New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ -13.9%
23. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA -14.1%

Those aren't \"cities\" those are areas of NY AND NJ, that's not one city, but several.

1 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

plim

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@amberlink: agreed. and same thing with:
21. NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA -14.8%
20. Trenton-Ewing, NJ -15.0%

how can you go from newark all the way through pennsylvania, but not include philly, camden, and have trenton/ewing as separate?

what's really weird about ny/wayne/white plains is that wayne is in passiac county. you have to go through northern nj (bergen county) to get to wayne. unless the district is a horseshoe that goes through rockland county (ny) and dips down to passiac.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

KZulu

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

The report is for the MSA not specific cities. The MSA is Metropolitan Statistical Area. To see what areas are included in this go to [www.census.gov] and it will show you a breakdown of the counties and cities included in each MSA listed.

","","","","

$\"user-pic\"$

chucko6166

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

I'm a victim of the price erosion taking place in Phoenix. My house is worth 35% less than it was when I purchased it 1 year ago. I thought the worst was over then, and boy was I wrong. I think that anyone who buys right now in any of these troubled markets is just asking for trouble. Right now in the Phoenix area houses are selling at the rate of about 8000-9000 units per month. The biggest problem is that right now the foreclosures in this market are - SURPRISE!! - around 8000-9000 units per month.

There will be no recovery in prices until the number of units selling is greater than the number of foreclosures. In Phoenix right now the market is still headed down sharply, with no real end in sight.

Buyer Beware!

","","","","

$\"user-pic\"$

ElizabethD

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

It's hard to believe no city in Rhode Island is on this list.

","","","

$\"user-pic\"$

mikull

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

As mentioned above, but in:
NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA

Newark and Union are in NJ - not NY... none of which are in NJ. Clearly the National Association of Realtors report details statistics any consumer should be skeptical about.

1 replies

$\"user-pic\"$

mikull

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

@mikull: Whoops, I meant to say, \"none of which are in PA\"...

","","

$\"user-pic\"$

zzxx

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

In addition to banks holding onto foreclosures, they are not foreclosing!!!!!!!!

I am underwater(owe 640K on a house that cost me 1100K which cannot be sold for 650K) and cannot make my loan payments.

If they foreclose they will have to maintain the property and it might go into disrepair. If they leave me be I will maintain the place and they can take it when they are ready. BTW, I have 9 missed loan payments.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

Could someone explain to me the sob stories about not being able to \"move on up\" with lower home prices? I never did understand that...

Let's say that home prices have dropped 20% in your area, and you were looking to move into a bigger house. For simple-math's sake, let's say (in better times) your house was worth $100k and the house you want was worth $200k.

Sure, your current house has dropped $20k in value, but the house you want has dropped $40k in value. This should make things EASIER as your net difference is $20k LESS than when values were higher! Sure, in this market, it may take a little longer to sell than if we were in a seller's market, but the house you want is more affordable!

It seems to me that HIGHER home values are what the majority of people should be concerned about.

This brings up another point...in this market, you would think sellers would be doing ANYTHING to make their home more attractive, especially when they are trying to hold to values from 2-3 years ago. When I sold my house earlier this year, I had new flooring throughout most of the house, fresh paint, and most of the appliances were only a few years old, along with other improvements.

However, when my wife and I went looking at houses to buy, even houses that were only a few years old had scuffed walls, worn and stained carpet, and builder-grade appliances and fixtures. And they were asking top dollar! Most people did absolutely nothing (or at least very little) to make their houses stand out.

On the flip side, most of these homes were on the market for months (some still on the market), and mine sold, going under contract after less than 1 week on the market. Oh, and I got asking price.

","

$\"user-pic\"$

chucko6166

November 18, 2009 4:52 PM

Moderate |Flag for review

It appears that I'm not alone in Phoenix. According to this, 63 % of the mortgages in Phoenix are underwater (worth less than what is owed).

Here is the complete slideshow if anyone is interested.

");