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dragonfire81
September 15, 2009 5:05 PM
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I think 3rd quarter results are going to be soft across the board and this christmas season will be rough too. Watch for market drops coming soon.

There's a growing disconnect between what Bernanke and Wall Street say and what's happening on the streets. This thing is NOT over.

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sonneillon
September 16, 2009 4:35 PM
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@dragonfire81:
Well this is one of those things where just because the recession is over does not mean that everything is going to be pre recession great. If we have shrunk our economy 4 percent in 2 years and grow 1 percent the next we are out of the recession but we are not where we need to be.

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Hoss
September 15, 2009 5:10 PM
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Well, he didn't say recession's over -- let's party like it's 1999... he said the technical measures will tell us the recession is probably over but employment instability will continue for some time. (BTW -- the AP statement of this being the worse recession since 1930 is total bunk.)

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hi
September 15, 2009 6:46 PM
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@Hoss: Wait for it. They have only delayed the ineviable by stealing from the poor and giving it to the rich (bank bailouts). We are now 20+ trillion in debt because of the bailouts. Don't fool yourself into thinking it's over. Because it's not.

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Cameraman
September 15, 2009 5:10 PM
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Good news: the recession may be just about over. Bad news: economy will never again be at the level it was just two years ago, because as it turns out the economy was running on lies, hopes, dreams, and bullspit.


Worse news: due to generations of mismanagement by both Corporate America and idiot politicians from both sides of the aisle, a far, far worse depression is on the horizon. Just to pick the most recent example, the government is gonna spend truckloads on money to stimulate the economy, forgetting that the government doesn't actually make money or produce anything, so they will have to raise taxes to ridonculous levels to pay for it all.


To paraphrase 20th century philosopher Fr. Guido Sarducci, the time to invest in gold is over. Now is the time to invest in shovels (and canned goods too, probably).

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kingmanic
September 15, 2009 8:17 PM
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@Cameraman:
'forgetting that the government doesn't actually make money or produce anything'
Ironically you typing that statement on two pieces of technology which the government produced and although did not directly profit from did indirectly profit from by dramatically growing the economy. The Internet and computers is the single counter point needed to refute your ridiculous assertion. The government is generally inefficient but has been known to make some useful things once in a while.

@snowburnt:
Canada opted for stability and thus had a banking system that neither flew as high as the US system in the 2000's but also didn't implode last January. We have a slight bit of growth int he last quarter to show for our restraint.

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onereeves
September 21, 2009 8:40 PM
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@kingmanic: Yes Canada was more stable but it is also more costly to live in. Just got back from the Great White North and the prices are quite a bit higher BEFORE you figure in the PST/GST!

Gas is over $3.50 a gallon. McDonalds was almost $17CDN for what is $12US. Love the Country but not sure I could afford to live there.

With the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar almost in parity I might have to buy some Canadian Dollars as an investment.

That or all the Canadians need to come south for the Winter and help out their American cousins!

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snowburnt
September 15, 2009 6:30 PM
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@Cameraman: since when has an \"economy\" ever been based on anything except lies, hopes, dreams, and spit?

it depends on what you want out of it. You want stability, we can over regulate and stifle growth...but you know what to expect and what you get will be constant. You want massive growth, we can include loop-holes and let you do what you want, but you have to know that there will be massive losses as well.

There's definitely a happy medium to every situation, your prognostication perhaps will not come to pass. Additionally the fact that it's now the 21st century calls the question whether you should take investment advice from a philosopher.

The way that I look at it: if your summary of the economy isn't the size of a book, it's too simplistic. If it is the size of a book, I can't be bothered to read it. I'll continue working my job, getting my raises and keep a stash for later.

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pecan 3.14159265
September 15, 2009 5:12 PM
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Dear Ben,

Just because you keep saying it, does not necessarily make it more true, mmkay?

Sincerely,

Pecan

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SlappySquirrel
September 15, 2009 11:44 PM
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@pecan 3.14159265: Unless people trust him and go back to buying stuff.

Hey, it could happen.

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FatLynn
September 15, 2009 6:19 PM
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@pecan 3.14159265: I first read your comment as directed at Ben Popken, and had a big \"WTF? moment\".

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theblackdog
September 15, 2009 5:20 PM
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@pecan 3.14159265: Are you kidding, that man has probably had a raging hard-on over this recession and hopes it continues because he can put to use the things he learned about the depression when he was in college.

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wgrune
September 15, 2009 5:33 PM
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@theblackdog_VerifiesHisEmail:


I suppose he could always lower the fed funds rate again. It's currently .25% abover 0 so he's still got that hand to play.

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Vandelay Import Export
September 15, 2009 5:15 PM
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I don't trust any of these financial people or government people, so I would doubly distrust a government financial person.

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harvey_birdman
September 15, 2009 5:44 PM
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@wgrune: Regardless of what either political party tells you, Social Security WILL NOT be around that long.

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jscott73
September 15, 2009 5:15 PM
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Kiplinger disagrees: [kiplinger.com]

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MrDo
September 15, 2009 5:19 PM
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which economy is he looking at? commercial real estate bust is just about to hit. all those 5 year ARM's are resetting. real unemployment is closer to 20%. food banks are out of food in many areas. the stock market is in yet another bubble (the QE funds are almost gone folks). consumer spending is flat. savings is non-existent for anyone making under 250k a year. 12% of the worlds shipping fleet is anchored off of Thailand sitting unused. a good portion people on \"funemployment\" will be at the end of their claim limits soon, and I have not even touched on 90% of the other shitty news. V recovery my ass.

as for reforms, yeah that's going to happen. the SEC is incompetent (madoff) and corrupt (BoFA/ML), HFT's are co-lo with the exchanges, and market volume is in the gutter yet we keep seeing gains. essentially the market is being gamed by the Fed and its propping up of banks that are fundamentally bankrupt. anyone with an ounce of sense can see that they are not even bothering to enforce current laws and restrictions, why would they enact new ones?

just have to keep this circus going till 2010 elections, then they can let it all turn to shit till 2012.

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kingmanic
September 15, 2009 8:19 PM
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@MrDo:
'which economy is he looking at?'

The one that defines a recession as two quarters of decline int he markets. In this regard he seems to be technically correct. The markets have perked up. The rest are 'lagging indicators'.

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HRHKingFridayXX
September 15, 2009 5:56 PM
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@MrDo: Ummmm... I make WELL under 250k and have managed to double my rainy day fund over the last year. Sure, I can't buy a new flat screen or Hummer, but it can be done.

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snowburnt
September 15, 2009 6:31 PM
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@HRHKingFridayXX: Ditto. I may not be spending money like crazy, but I definitely have accumulated much wealth during the current recession.

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flamincheney
September 15, 2009 5:21 PM
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Well, the banks who have free range to manipulate the rules that they set have allowed them to return to profitability, and they are going to again be getting enormous bonuses. So, yeah he's right. All is well.

Things on the ground floor are just going to keep getting worse, as the rich will keep getting more rich. If that's the end of a recession I guess he's right.

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vastrightwing
September 15, 2009 6:58 PM
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@flamincheney: I guess it depends on your meaning of \"recession\".

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flamincheney
September 15, 2009 5:24 PM
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Wait until the mass of defaulted student loans begins to hit.

No jobs for grads=Inability and lack of desire to pay back loans.

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DepressedMan
September 15, 2009 6:00 PM
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@flamincheney: Or you go to school or do something really magically for the government. The only way to get rid of student government loan debt is..

1) Pay it back
2) There are programs like teaching for X amount of years which the government will then forgive your debt
3) Like #2, but more rare and in a government field.

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HRHKingFridayXX
September 15, 2009 5:58 PM
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@flamincheney: No, student loan debt is permanent. Even after you stop making payments for a year, when it goes to court they will likely just put you on a \"pay what you can\" system until you get a job. At which point you continue paying the full amount back.

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thehouserules
September 15, 2009 5:26 PM
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If people think the recession is over, they might go out and spend more money, which stimulates the economy, instead of hoarding it, which only hurts the economy. So, I'm fine with him saying that, even if it's baseless.

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TheWillow
September 15, 2009 5:28 PM
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Freaking Gray's Papaya and their less-good-than-it-used-to-be recession special :(

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mac-phisto
September 15, 2009 5:28 PM
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that's funny, b/c geithner says we're not in a recovery yet.

wish these do-nothings would get on the same page already.

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Cameraman
September 15, 2009 5:31 PM
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Geithner can't even figure out how to use TurboTax. Discount everything he says.

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mac-phisto
September 15, 2009 5:52 PM
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@Cameraman: & why should i believe bernanke over him?

i'm not saying i believe geithner - i just don't believe bernanke either.

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MrDo
September 15, 2009 5:32 PM
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oh yeah, I didnt bother to mention the coming pension disaster, as well as the collapse of most of the US state budgets over the next two years.

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wgrune
September 15, 2009 5:40 PM
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@MrDo:


By pension disaster do you mean the fact that almost no one in the private sector gets one anymore but nobody saves any money anyway? Because that TERRIFIES me.


My aunt is 55 years old, has a grand total of $26k saved up, and is planning on retiring in 5 years. On what money, I don't know.


Then, there's my neighbor who cashed in his 401k to get a good deal on a truck.


Will we let these poor people stave to death in the gutters because they didn't save for their retirement? Doubtfull. We will end up bailing them out.

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mac-phisto
September 15, 2009 5:51 PM
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@wgrune: reportedly, a lot of people cashed in their pension plans over the past couple of years - not always to buy a new truck - many times just to pay the bills that their unemployment checks weren't covering.

or to fill the income gap between what their old (higher paying) job paid & what their new (lower paying) job now pays.

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MrDo
September 15, 2009 5:42 PM
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@wgrune: if I had it my way, we would soylent green them and at least that way we could get something of worth from them.

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Darklighter
September 15, 2009 5:39 PM
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Now I want Gray's Papaya. Why is NYC on the other side of the freaking country?

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smartmuffin
September 15, 2009 5:41 PM
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I'll be sure to tell all my unemployed friends that it's over, they'll be quite relieved!

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chrisexv6
September 15, 2009 5:47 PM
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Judging by the amount of companies I call for quotes on getting work done that never call me back, they must be so busy that the recession is finally over.

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Xerloq
September 15, 2009 5:47 PM
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What happens when a government goes bankrupt? Just curious...

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Alys Brangwin
September 16, 2009 5:41 AM
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@Xerloq wants to...: Have you heard of Argentina?

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hi
September 15, 2009 8:07 PM
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@vastrightwing: Yes we are. 20+ Trillion in debt IS bankrupt. And Obama goes on national TV and says we are the wealthiest country in the world. F'kin lier.

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TuxthePenguin
September 15, 2009 6:04 PM
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@Xerloq wants to...: Its something you don't want to see. Look at Zimbabwe. You really don't go \"bankrupt\" but you start to see runaway inflation because to borrow more money to run the government (and pay interest) you must do it at higher and higher rates. To make up for that, you end up printing money... which feeds itself.

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Cameraman
September 15, 2009 6:02 PM
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My apologies. In denigrating Geithner, I accidentally implied that Bernanke was somehow more believable, and he is not. They're all a bunch of lieing scumbags.

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Cameraman
September 15, 2009 6:03 PM
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Massive inflation followed by civil unrest if we're lucky.

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nnj
September 15, 2009 6:08 PM
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About two years ago he insisted that credit losses were safely contained. There will be no spill over. He is just trying to avoid a panic. Alt-a and option arm mortgages are going to start to come due very soon. Many of which will likely default causing further economic distress and deep financial losses for lenders. It is like we are in the eye of the hurricane right now.


No matter how bad the economy is, he always has some positive comment such as \"green shoots.\" I wish he would just knock it off already.

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mac-phisto
September 15, 2009 7:19 PM
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@nnj: worse yet, imo, are the tens of thousands of people that fall off the unemployment doles in the next couple of months with no nothing indicating job growth.

presumably, quite a few of these people have a mortgage that they won't be able to pay when the checks stop coming.

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vastrightwing
September 15, 2009 6:56 PM
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@nnj: Because he's lying. He has a stake in covering up the Ponzi scheme. He wants people to continue playing as long as they have hope they will make a buck.

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ARP
September 15, 2009 6:10 PM
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There needs to be a new way to discuss the health of the economy and what a recession is. Both political parties use their quasi-political economists spin isolated bits of data to misrepresent the true state of the economy. Bush did it when we technically has positive GDP, but all other indicators were negative and Obama will use a similar tactic.


We need a meta-indicator. Something that can somehow weigh: GDP, Stocks, employment, average and class based salaries, inflation, cost of living, poverty rates, cost of certain staples (bread, milk, gas, etc.).


Some of these seem redundant, but politics has infected even the basic measures. For example, when gas prices went through the roof, Bush just cut that out of certain economic measures and added an asterick.

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frodolives35
September 16, 2009 12:41 AM
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@ARP:As long as the new formula includes the number of I will work for food signs counted on a given day and the number of foreclosures in the paper it might be accurate .

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gjones77
September 15, 2009 6:10 PM
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Any likely reforms that come out of Washington will be window dressing, and they'll create new loopholes to create the next financial disaster, not to mention that the regulations will only affect companies that aren't politically connected, giving politicians buddies a helping hand.

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H3ion
September 15, 2009 6:29 PM
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I think he was just channeling Herbert Hoover.

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hi
September 15, 2009 6:48 PM
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YAY the recession is over!!!!!!!!


Oh Dang... it's now a depression.


You see how they word things? They are telling the truth! The recession IS over it's been over... we're in a depression. A depression is a long drawn out recession. This is a depression and it's getting worse.

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vastrightwing
September 15, 2009 6:52 PM
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I don't believe it. They are being duplicitous trying to get people to spend money again. Forget it. People have been burned by this and the money isn't going to flow for a long time. Goldman & the gang are trying like heck to get carbon credits to start trading, but when the economy is tanked like this, it will be difficult to get any momentum. 15 to 20 years is my estimation for any real recovery and then only if there is any kind of market transparency, which I doubt. So any recovery will be due to people forgetting this mess. And this is why I think it will take so long.

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tailstoo
September 15, 2009 7:11 PM
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The result of all of this - big companies got bigger and more powerful. The rich with their money in stock market got a nice recovery because the government propped up the financial system. And the commmon people lost their homes, saw their wages decline or got laid off, and can barely make ends meet, if they even can.

Sorry folks, but this isn't sustainable. Go look at the history of Rome for things to come - it's all already happened (but without flat screen TVs).

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vorpal_hamster
September 15, 2009 7:41 PM
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I was talking with a friend last night who just managed to get a temp job after being un/underemployed for 9 months. He works with a yahoo who managed to get a temp job after his unemployment ran out.


This nincompoop accused my friend of being \"morally bankrupt\" because he is stingy and saves a lot of money rather than spending everything he has. Like my friend is personally responsible for sinking the economy.


Some people are hanging on every word our pablum-puking govt is saying. Personally, I'm stocking up on canned goods and ammunition because I think this is the calm before the storm.

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Trencher93
September 15, 2009 7:45 PM
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The \"haves\" are never in a recession, and it's never over for the \"have nots\".

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econobiker
September 15, 2009 7:56 PM
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If ederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gives up his gov't paid healthcare and pension, and used the same options that the great unwashed have, I would believe him much more. Instead he is just a gov't paperpusher with better benefits than most people will ever get...

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hi
September 15, 2009 8:04 PM
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@econobiker: The Federal Reserve is not part of our government. It is a private corporation.


But your right about the rest.

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Skaperen
September 15, 2009 8:46 PM
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The most important measure is the Economic Gini Coefficient.

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AgamemnonV1
September 15, 2009 10:19 PM
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Consumerist read my mind. I'll give a damn more once I have a job...sorry, IF I ever get a job. Here in Florida the unemployment rate is 11% and it's predicted that it will continue to rise. Oh yay. I'm even willing to shoot people in the face in this man's army, but apparently I'm too healthy to join the military. There is only one thing left to do.

I'll join the circus!

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morlo
September 16, 2009 11:33 AM
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@AgamemnonV1: Too healthy? Could the government actually have come up with a brilliant plan to solve the health-care crisis by sending the sick to fight in the Middle East?

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AgamemnonV1
September 16, 2009 3:25 PM
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@morlo: Egads! It all makes sense now! The death panel conspiracies are true!

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El_Fez
September 15, 2009 10:25 PM
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HUZZAH! Now perhaps I can actually get a job! Four months unemployed and not even a call back for an interview!

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hazelblue
September 16, 2009 1:39 AM
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This Bernanke guy is really slick.
He helped lots of people become unemployed, drove interest rates down to keep the dollar perpetually weak (which hasn't helped oil prices, btw), and now suddenly he's claiming the recession's over.
Why do I get the feeling we're being hosed with a lot of garbage?

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Saltillopunk
September 16, 2009 2:47 AM
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Why do they (Gov't and media) keep regurgitating that the recession is (almost)over expecting the public to buy into it? I took a voluntary termination because I had little faith the company I was at, would be around much longer. It has almost been a year and I have yet to land a new job. Worse yet, is all the aplications I have fired off only to snag 2 interviews so far. I ain't buying their crap and neither is anyone else

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parrotuya
September 16, 2009 3:04 AM
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He's wrong-o! We will know it's over only \"when the fat lady sings!\" Then it is over.

DOWn, baby, DOWn!

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ageshin
September 16, 2009 7:45 AM
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Ya the recession is over, make way for the depression. The illusion that the banks and wall street are returning to a more normal state is only the result of the government stimulus package and the Fed's infusion to a couple of trillion bucks. They are doing ok, but the rest of us are going to hell in a hand basket.

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glevkoff
September 16, 2009 10:52 PM
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The Great Depression actually ended in 1932 as well, but by then people were enjoying such a sense of feel good solidarity with one another that the government allowed it to go on for another seven years...

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fuzzymuffins
September 16, 2009 11:53 PM
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sounds to me like that telling us the \"recession is almost over\" is a last ditch effort to change the mind of the average joe into believing that it really is.

the only real progress seems to come from gov't subsidized programs (stimulus checks, bank bailout, cash for clunkers).

the recession may be over for the number crunchers, but the average middle income american has a long, hard fight ahead.

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