The week of rationing was caused by demographics ganging up with bad public policy. China and India, with their billion-strong populations, want to eat real food, boosting demand just as supplies are diminishing. Tack on the price of oil, rising like a lost balloon, coupled with the government-induced ethanol high our farmers are enjoying, and you have yourself a mess.
The market processed all this data last week and had itself a conniption. Not "the market" as comprised of Lamborghini-driving Wall Street types, but the purer market made up of individuals acting to protect their economic interests.
Commercial bakers say they are stocking up on specialty rye and gluten flour because of fear that supplies are dwindling. And Costco's chief executive said the big-box retailer is thinking twice about letting customers buy multiple pallets of flour to preserve supplies.This isn't Joe consumer doing the stockpiling, unless Joe consumer owns a bakery and an Indian restaurant. People are looking at supply chains and prices and independently determining that now is the time to stockpile because things are going to get worse, not better.Restaurants and other large-scale customers appear to be buying so much rice that Costco, Sam's Club and other wholesalers have put limits on the amounts they sell, leading some consumers to stock up. This has resulted in some individual stores in places like California reportedly running out of rice.
So what should you do? The New York Times offers anecdotal proof that you already know how to react:
Burt Flickinger, a longtime retail consultant, said the last time he saw such significant changes in consumer buying patterns was the late 1970s, when runaway inflation prompted Americans to "switch from red meat to pork to poultry to pasta -- then to peanut butter and jelly."The Wall Street Journal, that towel of smiles, boils down the essentials of surviving rising food prices and a Soviet/Sino attack:"It hasn't gotten to human food mixed with pet food yet," he said, "but it is certainly headed in that direction."
[...]
Wal-Mart Stores reports stronger-than-usual sales of peanut butter and spaghetti, while restaurants like Domino's Pizza and Ruby Tuesday have suffered a falloff in orders, suggesting that many Americans are sticking to low-cost home-cooked meals.
Over the last year, purchases of brand name cookies and crackers have fallen, according to Information Resources, which tracks retail sales.
You can't easily stock up on perishables like eggs or milk. But other products will keep. Among them: Dried pasta, rice, cereals, and cans of everything from tuna fish to fruit and vegetables. The kicker: You should also save money by buying them in bulk.Have you changed your buying patterns yet? Tell us in the comments.
What's going on with rice and flour? [Chicago Tribune]
Load Up the Pantry [WSJ]
Recession Diet Just One Way to Tighten Belt [NYT]
(AP Photo Antonio Romero)
It's like being back in Ethics class. Great read, a bit long reply but worth it. Very fascinating.
]]>That's funny. I noticed that lamb is now much cheaper and have been eating more of it.
]]>Then Whole Foods gained steam. They started jacking up their prices in 2002 and 03. Before long, they, and other health food stores were charging near-current prices, such as 89¢/lb for flour, $4.99/lb for red bell peppers (which comes to about $2.50 each), and $1.99 a bunch for kale and collards.
What was more annoying was that I didn't live in a city with a WF, but my local, dingy, poorly stocked and managed health food stores started charging the same prices. So I quit the overpriced health food boutiques and shopped at regular groceries. Then they started raising their prices until they were roughly comparable to WF prices. Wal-Mart in my city now charges $1.10 a lb for onions, 69¢/lb for bananas, $1.87 for a red bell pepper, and $1.59/bunch for greens (when they have them). Celery is $1.50/bunch, and carrots about 69¢/lb. As recently as 2005 I would freak when potatoes cost more than 75¢/lb at the health food store, but now they're 90¢/lb at Wal-Mart.
The gist of this is that not so long ago, there were nearly no vegetable foods that cost as much per serving as meat, but now many veggies do, more so if you consume organic. These days I shop at ethnic groceries, where for some reason, they are still able to charge only 1/2 to 2/3 the Wal-Mart price for veggies.
]]>Compare a box of Boca Burgers to a box of Turkey Burgers, at cost per lb. How about green peppers at $3/lb compared to chicken thighs at $.99/lb? Milk for $3/gal vs Soy milk for $5/gal?
I mean, yes you absolutely need vegetables in your diet but meat is not that expensive where I live. Soy based proteins are much more expensive.
]]>I still have a 5lb can of the stuff and by the time I run out this should have blown over.
]]>Also, I've only been walking the perimeter of the grocery store to get my groceries, since that's where all the staples are. The only time I really venture into the middle aisles is when I need a basic item like flour, peanut butter, etc...
]]>Most of us are obese anyhow. A food shortage might do us some good!
]]>@kable2: You may have a point, but man I love a good glass of chemicals, blood, and puss with a big ol' piece of chocolate cake with chocolate icing.
And FYI it does a body good. I heard that on TV.
]]>Wrong.
Specialization and economies of scale are the only ways to drive food prices lower. There are nearly 7 billion humans on Earth; you're going to need to feed an awful lot of people. Buying "cheap land" in the MidWest is a nonstarter. In America, you either don't have money to purchase land and float debt that's cheaper than food or you're not really complaining about this.
]]>Re; Ethanol and its total inefficiency. Remember one thing: ANYTHING the government touches gets screwed up. Look at what happened to education (it's deplorable in the public schools)... look at medical care cost (driven up my the government's intrusion into Medicare and Medicaid)...Anything and everything that the government gets involved in becomes a train wreck.
]]>@ShariC: Yeah margerine that's heathly for you.
]]>@ideagirl: You've got the right idea that many many people just don't know about. I bought all of my fruits and vegetables yesterday at a produce market for $7. Not everything is a deal but when you can get 3 red peppers for $1 it's almost like stealing.
]]>Soy. For the most part, to meet ethanol demand, corn-and-soy rotation has gone to a corn-on-corn rotation, which is its whole own set of problems.
@LastVigilante: "Has anyone ever seen any research done on the human population capacity of this planet's resources?"
Yes, I teach it in my ethics class. Basically, it's likely we would have hit a Malthusian catastrophe by 1900 w/o the development of nitrogen-based fertilizers, which drove crop yields through the roof. Today, however, yields improve only incrementally, fields tend to need more nitrogen every year (like a crack whore that needs more crack to get high every time), and nitrogen fertilizer is ABSURDLY expensive in terms of energy to make, and that's typically fossil-fuel energy, so nitrogen fertilizer is getting WAY expensive. (Mother Nature puts nitrogen into soil either very slowly through legumes, or very quickly through LIGHTNING STRIKES. So we're talking lightning-strike levels of energy here.)
Anyway, a lot of the debate on the carrying capacity of the planet centers around a) how available and expensive nitrogen fertilizer will be in the future; b) whether developments in agriculture can improve yields more; and c) how much land global warming will remove from useful production. (Oh, and d: ATLANTA AND SO-CAL, STOP FUCKING USING ALL THE FRESH WATER, WE NEED IT TO EAT! and variations on that theme.)
Before nitrogen fertilizer, the carrying capacity of the planet was around 2 billion, but other agricultural techniques have also improved since then (but we might also lose arable land). So you can use 2 billion as a worst-case-scenario. Some estimates think we could get as high as 12 billion, but that would require little meat-eating, excellent land management, and a fairly flawless food distribution system.
I am most persuaded by the dudes who say (and I'm not a scientist, this is just based on what I've read) that with inefficiencies in the system, 6 or 7 billion is about the best we can do, and if we don't get water management under control, we're talking 4 or 5 billion and a lot of dead people who died so some idiot could have a greener lawn.
A big debate right now, and the reason we discuss this in ethics class, is whether food aid is actually moral in the long run, because (the argument goes) if we look at the carrying capacity of individual nations or regions, what food aid tends to do is prevent "population corrections" (read: famine, disease, war resulting from famine) that reduce a nation to its carrying capacity. The constant injection of food aid not just prevents the "correction" but allows the population to grow even FURTHER, so that when the correction inevitably comes, it will be far more catastrophic.
It's a very difficult issue, because if you can look someone starving in the face and refuse them food, you suck epically. But if giving them food helps them make their situation ever more precarious ... that sucks too.
]]>@kable2:
Milk is one of the best complete foods out there. One cup of whole milk contains 150 KCal, 9 grams of protein, 12 grams of carbs, and 8 grams of fat. The average American would do well to drink a few glasses of milk a day, not to mention it is very INEXPENSIVE for the nutrients it contains.
]]>Has anyone ever seen any research done on the human population capacity of this planet's resources? I find it hard to believe, as right now we are having all these problems at 6.65 billion, that we could sustain any more than 8 billion. At this rate we are due to reach that in the next 20-25 years, and I don't foresee us colonizing any other planets by then.
]]>If you live near a university with an ag campus, I highly recommend you check to see if they sell any of their wares.
]]>If a bunch of corn production goes toward ethanol (which is happening), then there won't be as much corn for corn tortillas. The demand for corn tortillas, however, doesn't change, so the price of corn tortillas goes up. So, some people switch to flour tortillas. As a result, demand for flour tortillas goes up, increasing the price for flour tortillas and their raw ingredients -- wheat.
A lot of cattle are corn-fed. So, when the price of corn goes up, the price of beef goes up also. People then switch from beef to pork and chicken, and the prices of pork and chicken go up.
Meanwhile, the ethanol subsidy is causing people to switch land which was used for something else to using it for corn. As a result, there's less of whatever used to be grown on that land, and so the price of that goes up.
When corn is diverted to ethanol, the price of corn syrup goes up, so the price of a bunch of junk food goes up as well. As a result, some people switch to more healthy alternatives, driving those prices up.
In the end, the one moronic decision to subsidize corn-based ethanol impacts the prices of most foods.
]]>Wen to out this morning to buy Mariocart for the kids (they love it) and saw a line of about 50-60 people across the parking lot at Best Buy waiting to buy a Wii.
I don't think times can be that hard, yet, if the line for a Wii are longer than the lines for bags of rice.
]]>No, they aren't as great a deal as bulk, but if there was truly a shortage, even the small bags would be gone, not just the large bags the articles are warning about.
]]>I live in Texas, food prices have not gone up by much in 4 years, at least not what I'm buying. As far as cost of eating out at steakhouses,the price hasn't gone up there either. As far as hording goes, that's just silly I can go to any store here Sam's and Costco's included and there are 50-80lb bags o rice everywhere. And $4 for milk? do you shop at gas stations? This is a made up "shortage". If I don't have to go out of my way it, or pay anymore for it, then there is no shortage. As far as China and India go that's like 2.3 Billion people between both countries a shortage of food is something they "need".
]]>Yeah, another fellow Celiac here. I haven't had trouble finding rice yet (although I'm still working on a giant bag of it) My problem has been with the rising costs of the gluten free food. It was expensive enough to tree and live a normal gluten free life style.
It is ridiculous. There is no reason for GF foods or its components to cost as much as they do.
I bake everything. Everything. Because gluten-free bread starts at $4.00 a loaf, I bake.
Now its getting plain ridiculous. I pay $6 for a 10oz box of Brown Rice Cereal. I could go straight rice, meat, fruits, and veggies but thats starting to creep up here too.
It is getting very expensive. I would look into alternatives if you possibly can. Poha (Indian Rice Flakes) makes a tasty cream of rice when I prepare it for breakfast, and a 2 pound bag is $3.50 or so at the Indian Market.
If you've ever wondered what people on the other side of the planet eat, now is as good a time as any to find out. People most everywhere generally eat farther down the food chain than we do in the West, so this would be good for Celiacs and wheat-eaters, too. It can be a lot less expensive, too.
Some Celiacs use Amazon & order GF food from them using their free shipping option. Some people join co-ops or order in bulk and split their orders with another family or two.
We buy on sale, from the Asian & Indian markets, from Amazon, and from the health food store and Costco/Sam's on sale or in bulk.
Since my diagnosis, we eat more "adventurously", for lack of a better term. It's cheaper and we eat stuff we would have probably never tried.
Still, when Rice Chex went "gluten free" last month, and I could suddenly get "regular" breakfast cereal at the grocery store again, I was a really happy camper.
]]>What's that got to do with rice and flour?
Archer Daniels Midland. Cargill. Monsanto. Etc.
These and other large food combines are determined you will accept GMO as normal and natural, as natural as Luther Burbank grafting new kinds of plant varieties. But Msr. Burbank never grafted human DNA into rice shoots to 'increase disease resistance'.
It will be near impossible to prove this assertion, because the skill in creating layers of plausible deniability is approaching that of a magus. But ... quis bono is as true today as follow the money, and both of those historic truths point directly at the recent splash of 'news' stories in all the important media proclaiming the genetically modified food crops will solve this crisis. At the same moment the media is making sure we KNOW there is a worldwide food shortage.
Convenient.
I'd hazard a guess that just as Big Oil manipulates price, availability, refining and delivery of their product in imitation of Cecil Rhodes' dictum to always buy diamonds off the market in order to keep the price high, that the food combines have reached a level of cooperation where they can control availability of critical food stocks in order to cause a stampede for their real goal ... acceptance of genetically modified crops.
Just a thought.
]]>A friend of ours, who works with farm insurance stuff, was telling us last night that typically farmers lock in what they view as a good price for several years. So three years ago corn farmers locked in 5-year prices at the elevators at $2.50/bushel, which was a historic high, etc. Now corn's selling at $6/bushel, they're locked in at $2.50, and something like 40% of them (locally) are underwater and won't be able to afford seed.
It probably means that there's going to be some damned cheap farm land on the market in the spring (enough to put the brakes on the ridiculous run-up in midwestern farmland prices due to ethanol? Unknown), and that without a government bailout ON TOP OF our massive and ill-considered subsidies, we're going to have a serious corn shortage. (Which is hard to even IMAGINE in this ag climate where corn is so ridiculously overplanted.)
This economy just gets weirder and worse. DO NOT WANT.
@hypochondriac: Good wheat land is typically the high plains (Dakotas, etc.) while good corn land is the midwest (Illinois, Iowa). Corn prefers ex-tallgrass prairie; wheat does better in ex-shortgrass prairie. You could grow either on either (and I'm sure there are types developed for various different soils/climates), but small differences in yields matter for commercial farming, so ....
]]>Don't blame the farmers though, except for corn they committed to futures sales contracts long before this run up in grains started.
]]>We have drastically changed our food habits. We buy very little processed anything and have gone to mostly pork & turkey for meat. We have also started eating more things that rely on rice, beans and smaller amounts of meat.
We live in a subdivision and there are people raising chickens in their back yards. Were planning a larger than normal garden this year with the hopes of freezing the extra to help with winter food costs.
As far as ethanol goes the farmers are the only people out here with any money. When the farmers were all going broke in the 80's we were all supposed to feel sorry for them and help them out. Now that the non farmers are in a pinch we get no help.
]]>errrr, I think you mean basmati rice.
]]>@LastVigilante: It seems to me that the only proven way to end overpopulation is through education and raising the standard of living of third world countries.
]]>/Have not touched it in years
//disgusting how they have to spin out most of the blood and puss
///disgusting mix of chemicals, bacteria, blood and puss
This is exactly the same hording that happens during a north east snow storm, the whole grocery store is wiped out of water, bread, batteries, milk, beer and practically everything else. The truth is that even the worst snow storm will end in a couple of days. Hording food isn't necessary: this is just a panic response. In this case, we have national hording going on because people are scared.
The answer is simple: stop worrying and live your normal life, then things will go back to normal.
]]>@humphrmi:
2% milk is $4.19 here in Maryland. Just bought a gallon from Super Fresh last night.
]]>The business people were likely doing a bit of local arbitrage -- wholesale prices spiked quickly and probably far faster than places like Costco can react to when pricing their own goods. That may explain the initial flood of bulk purchases in some areas.
That was the start; what happened afterwards is may be hoarding or a bit of panic buying.
]]>@dakotad555: I always thought sheep were supposed to be better company. Ummm...so I heard.
]]>Interesting quote from the article:
"At the same time, food was becoming the new gold. Investors fleeing Wall Street's mortgage-related strife plowed hundreds of millions of dollars into grain futures, driving prices up even more. By Christmas, a global panic was building. With fewer places to turn, and tempted by the weaker dollar, nations staged a run on the American wheat harvest.
Foreign buyers, who typically seek to purchase one or two months' supply of wheat at a time, suddenly began to stockpile. They put in orders on U.S. grain exchanges two to three times larger than normal as food riots began to erupt worldwide. This led major domestic U.S. mills to jump into the fray with their own massive orders, fearing that there would soon be no wheat left at any price. "
]]>@mpjones: Speculators do have a affect on price. Supply and Demand can't explain alot of whats going on
]]>There is no real shortage of rice in america. The rationing is on imported rice from countries like india. Long grain rice called banaspati. Which tastes better then regular rice. India Currently has a ban on exporting of rice. I also heard that wheat and corn can't grow in the same plot of land so the ethanol craze is not responsible for higher wheat prices. Anyone know if that is true
]]>I know some Asian families eat rice pretty much every single meal, but come'on now. Even so 20lbs of rise should last a LOOOOOONG time. Personally I'm lucky if I can use three of those Uncle Ben boxes in a month.
At the consumer level this whole thing is completely absurd.
]]>Food shortages are nothing new. They've happened for centuries. Americans won't starve to death even in the face of rising food prices, and if our waistlines are any indication, we can probably stand to reduce our food intake. Those of you predicting a Malthusian catastrophe really need to realize that we have the greatest access to the most plentiful supply of food in history and we're not going to starve to death.
]]>making your own bread can be as expensive as buying it...seems like the powers that be have got us from all sides....gas, food ,housing....it's grab and run time......eventually the bubble is gonna bust
]]>My spending habits havnt changed. I am still a coupon-clipping, wait-for-a-sale, miserably cheap SOB.
BRING IT ON WORLD!!!!!!!!!
]]>Primarily because I grow a lot of the food I eat, but also because for a lot of people this is a wake-up call: "Ooooh! There's this thing called the ECONOMY. Why didn't I ever bother to understand it before?"
If you want to invest a little time and effort, you can avoid getting screwed on the rising costs of secondary products (beer, bread, etc.) by learning to make your own. There is also a lot of personal satisfaction to be found in eating whole meals that are almost 100% the work of your own hands.
]]>Careful:
]]>Alaska had 4 dollar a gallon milk over a decade ago.
]]>The small bags are still, for the most part, not that great a deal.
But then....maybe now we'll see the "larger package, higher unit price" thing and have it make sense.
]]>Them steakhouse prices are going to go up as well.
1) Because RT went up.
2) The cost of gas/electric to operate the business is going up.
3) Them there steaks don't walk themselves to the steakhouse.
4) The cost of beef is going to go up because of the diversion of corn to ethanol.
]]>I smell conspiracy by Walmart.
See, I was going to spend my Uncle George check on a good hooker and maybe a new 8 track player. 8 Track players are not sold at Walmart and hookes can't get their Meth at Walmart so Walmart was going to have little to gain from my Uncle George check.
So Walmart stated talking bad economy in hopes that I would realize the evil ways I was going to spend the Uncle George check and would want to spend my $ on a new big screen TV.
But that didn't work.
All that bad economy talk got me thinking that I should SAVE my Uncle George check.
Well that sure as hades wasn't going to stimulate any of my body parts and it sure wasn't going to do much for anybody but the local bank.
And Walmart doesn't get to do banking.
Now we got this talk about food. I gotta have food. Maybe I will spend my Uncle George check on food.
And Walmart wins because it is the only F***** grocery store near me.
]]>i made the decision a few months ago to become a vegetarian (i still eat fish occasionally). this was mostly for environmental reasons, but it's amazing how much money you save when you don't buy or eat meat anymore.
]]>Am I the only one who thinks that the root of all these problems is that there are simply too many people in the world, growing at an exponentially quicker rate? Surely there has been some studies somewhere that evaluates what the threshold of human population is before this planet's resources simply cannot sustain it. Are we at that threshold? Even if so, I don't think you'll ever hear any politician or policy makers stand up and say "Hey, people. How 'bout you stop having so many kids?" Instead, they'll regulate the oil and subsidize the food supply until they are blue in the face. I'm not saying we should start putting birth control in the tap water or anything... but... can't we start putting birth control in the tap water or something?
]]>They come home with 100 calorie snack packages and regular sized cereal boxes and small meats. Everything is small and expensive.
I BEG them to go to an ALDI or a BULK store to buy everything. I've done the math, and it's clear, there is no denying that bulk is better. i have showed them they can cut their monthly food bill in half. But my mom is afraid to buy large food because "they go stale"....buy some premium airtight containers and they will pay for themselves.
I give 80% of my paychecks to my parents to help out. But i think i am going to stop giving them money if they insist on wasting it.
]]>I feel like I'm the only person I know who lives well below her means, and therefore doesn't feel the crunch like everyone else.
]]>When I went to the Korean market yesterday to buy rice in bulk, the counter guy told me that they were limiting the rice bags to 2-20 pound bags per person. They were nearly out on a day that they should have had stacks and stacks.
I didn't care because even though we almost certainly eat more rice than the average family, it takes a while to go through 40 pounds and all this silliness should be over by then.
Then I noticed something odd: while the 20 and 50 pound bags were gone or down to a very few, the 1, 2, & 5 pound bags were stocked on the shelves.
People have been reading the news, seeing the story we've all seen about the Costco in Mountainview, CA running out of bulk rice, deciding that they need bulk rice, are driving to the store to buy it, and are avoiding smaller packages. Why? Because they think they need bulk rice because the paper says so, not because they actually "need" rice at all.
The same thing had happened at the grocery store later. Large bags gone, small bags were just sitting there.
As for our eating/buying habits, they haven't really changed at all because pretty much everything is already from scratch because of the Celiac. I am trying to get more from Costco, but that's because the Costco is new to our area. I buy the same stuff in the same amounts.
I know for my non-Celiac friends, they are eating out less, baking some more (as much as work allows), and buying less junky stuff.
]]>There was a run on butter
As an Economics major, I have to say LOL - If it ends up being a global run on butter, then global spending on guns will decrease, and we'll have fewer wars.
]]>Also, the writer of one of Wall Street Journal article is an investor in Quaker (maker of such products as Quaker Oats).
]]>Well wheat futures are crazy at the moment, we should be feeling that sometime this summer. There was a run on butter in Japan, so i wonder when that will hit us. This is definately dark times indeed, at least foreboading.
]]>Beer is set to rise significantly in the next 2 years due to a terrible crop the last two years.
]]>*loads shotgun*
Shhhh, I'm hunting wabbit.
]]>Milk prices are going to moderate or even go down somewhat this year.
]]>Temporarily, yes, but eventually when hardly anyone is actually buying during times of low supply, it would smooth things out.
Yeah, it is kind of a half-assed solution when you're still wasting most of the plant.
]]>Ethanol is a terrible solution to our dependence on over-seas oil. I would argue that, in a "two-situation" scenario, we're better off relying on Middle East oil than promoting/giving incentives for producing our own ethanol.
]]>I can buy about 80% of my groceries there for half the money I spend at, say, Dominick's. Trying out their off-brand products can be hit (chicken patties) or miss (pizza rolls), but it's hard to mess up generic canned goods, cereal, and dairy.
As for milk, I keep an eye out on the quantity discount sales, where 2 gallons are about 40% off. My family can go through it fast enough to make it worth my while.
]]>Everyone should simply move away from urban areas where land is cheap, buy themselves several chickens, a cow, a couple goats (for company) and then plant a 2 acre garden using heirloom seeds so that the plants reproduce. We can live off the fat of the land, and guarantee ourselves that our food is organic.
Or, we could genetically modify chickens so that they are beakless, massive chested, and grow rapidly. Pump in some chemicals to make them even tastier, and the capacity to lay ten eggs a day, and problem solved.
These are the only two solutions to our catastrophic food shortage.
Aside: are double-cheeseburgers still $1.00 at McDonalds?
]]>@ceejeemcbeegee: Only in the short term. Then in the mid term, prices will drop because much of the demand from then is being met now. Then everything should even out.
]]>Milk? We're paying about the same today as we were paying last year, around two to three bucks a gallon, depending on sales. I've heard stories about $4 milk but I haven't seen it yet.
I always keep a good supply of canned foods on-hand anyway; good in emergencies and when we don't use them we give them to food pantries. I'm not sure that I need to start stocking up on it yet, as I haven't seen any shortages or huge spikes in prices of those items yet.
]]>I absolutely have changed my eating habits. Since gas is costing me $3.44 here in Des Moines, Iowa, eating out just isn't an option that much anymore.
Dollar pizzas, Ramen noodles, and store bought meat are just as good as Dominos, Chinese takeout, and that pricy steak on the menu.
]]>